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 Analysis Of Challenge Poll

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InsideOutlaw

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PostSubject: Re: Analysis Of Challenge Poll   Mon Feb 01, 2016 7:52 pm

Very interesting analysis, Mysty.  You obviously put a lot of time into it and it shows how much you care about keeping things fun and fair!  Thanks so much.

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PostSubject: Re: Analysis Of Challenge Poll   Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:15 pm

No, Moonpie.  Nobody has complained.  There was just a question about what won.  It's been an interesting process looking into it and I'm always happy to share.
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Moonpie
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PostSubject: Re: Analysis Of Challenge Poll   Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:01 pm

My mind is spinning even reading this, MAP.  I can't begin to imagine the work that went into compiling it.  Thanks for doing what you do to keep this place going.  Not many would go to this trouble on a question, and I'm on other fandoms where they have challenges too.  I don't actually care about winning.  I just like to play when the spirit moves me.  The only way to make it completely fair share is to take out the vote completely, but that's a fun part and I can't see why that should happen.  Has someone complained about not winning?
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PostSubject: Re: Analysis Of Challenge Poll   Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:48 pm

Me too, Javabee.  It's often amazing how fresh they are, and it's like playing an old favourite song.  I think it's a lovely way to keep playing when people are busy.  It struck me that I never looked at the time of year, to see if certain genres are more popular at certain times than others.  Darn it!  I bet they are.   bounce Maybe I'll note that from here.  That's interesting too.
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Javabee

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PostSubject: Re: Analysis Of Challenge Poll   Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:39 pm

Yes, and keeping in mind how great many of the entries were that did not win. So many of the stories that didn't win brought a smile to my face or a tear to my eye.  I also enjoy the legacy stories, even though they don't seem to win, because so many are actually new to me. Successes, all around.

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PostSubject: Re: Analysis Of Challenge Poll   Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:05 pm

Curious and wondering what constituted success, Keays.  It was a worthwhile exercise, though.  I think I'll keep the spreadsheet up month to month.  It's good to see the trends.  I think success is simply taking part with like-minded friends though, as it's only a game, after all.   Writing


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PostSubject: Re: Analysis Of Challenge Poll   Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:25 pm

This is fascinating. I missed the chat discussion about this. Was there some concern about the poll system not working as it should, or were folks just curious?

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PostSubject: Analysis Of Challenge Poll   Tue Jan 19, 2016 3:27 pm

As discussed in chat I have done a full analysis of our challenge polls and the results are interesting to say the least.  The following members have never won.  The number of submissions are shown in brackets:

Abcihgm (1), Caroline McK(1), Distant Drums(2), Eva Hanley(6), Gringo (1), Helen West(4), Moonpie(15), MoulinP(1), Stepha3nie(12), Skykomish(3), and Tashmina(2).

These members are among the lowest competing as you can see by the figure in brackets beside the name.


The highest rating winners are as follows in order of submissions:

Cimarron(1 win, 6 entries, no legacy stories, no stories in parts), Gringa (1 win, 6 entries, no legacy stories, no stories in parts ), Keays (1 win, 29 entries, 15 legacy entries, 19 stories in parts), Nancy Whiskey (1 win, 16 entries, no legacy stories, no stories in parts), Sheila (1 win, 7 entries, 2 legacy stories, 2 stories in parts), Storm (1 win, 4 entries, no legacy stories, no stories in parts) Bluebelle (2 wins, no legacy stories 7 stories, no stories in parts), Hannaheyes (2 wins 7 entries, no legacy stories, no stories in parts), Hunkeydorey (2 wins, 13 entries, 2 legacy stories, no stories in parts  ), Riders (2 wins, 17 entries, 3 legacy stories, no stories in parts), RosieAnnie (2 wins, 12 entries, no legacy stories, 4 stories in parts), Javabee (3 wins, 16 entries, no legacy stories, 8 stories in parts), Remuda(3 wins, 27 entries, 9 legacy stories, 4 stories in parts), InsideOutlaw (5 wins, 20 entries, no legacy stories, 6 stories in parts), Silverkelpie (5 wins, 27 entires, 2 legacy stories, 11 stories in parts)  

All of the above shows that the more you put in stories which haven't been seen anywhere else the great your chance of winning.   There does not appear to be any favoured group as the following stats show when legacy stories are removed (as they have never won).
  

Cimarron = 1 chance in 6   1:6  no change for stories in parts 


Gringa = 1 chance in 6  1:6


Bluebelle = 2 chances in 7  1:3.5


Keays = 1 chance in 10  1:10


Nancy Whiskey = 1 chance in 16 1:16


Hannaheyes - 2 chances in 7  1:3.5


Hunkeydorey = 2 chances in 10 1:5


Riders = 2 chances in 14  1:7


RosieAnnie =   2 chances in 12  1:6


SheilaUK =  1 chance in 5 1:3


Storm = 1 chance in 4  1:4


Hannaheyes = 2 chances in 7   1:3.5


Javabee = 3 chances in 16 1:5.3333


Remuda  = 3 chances in 18  1:6


InsideOutlaw = 5 chance in 20 1:4


Silverkelpie = 5 chances in 25 1:5 


However, stories in parts also do less well in winning challenges, I have noticed.  In fact, I think Javabee's is the only one I can think of which ever has.  So when I further adjust for stories in parts we get the following: 



Cimarron = 1 chance in 6   1:6  no change for stories in parts 


Gringa = 1 chance in 6  1:6 no change for stories in parts


Bluebelle = 2 chances in 7  1:3.5 no change for stories in parts                              


Keays = 6 which were neither legacy or in parts  1:6


Nancy Whiskey = 1:16 no change for stories in parts


Hannaheyes -  1:3.5 no change for stories in parts


Hunkeydorey =  1:5  no change for stories in parts


Riders =  2 chances in 14 1:7 no change for stories in parts


RosieAnnie = 2 chances in 12  1:6


SheilaUK = 1 chance in 5  1:5


Storm= 1 chance in 4  1:4


Hannaheyes = 2 chances in 7   1:3.5


Javabee = 3 chances in 16   1:5.3333


Remuda  = 3 chances in 18   1:6


InsideOutlaw = 5 chances in 20  1:4


Silverkelpie = 5 chances in 25 1:5


 

Mean figure = 1 chance in every 5.72 stories


Average = 1 chance in every 5.67 stories

I am not too concerned in the average for Eva, Moonpie, Nancy, Stephanie ect as they are new to writing, but I will keep an eye on it    



The story type is telling.  It was subjective to categorise them as no story falls purely in one area, but the most popular was roughly as follows:

Humour 11 times


Angst/hurt/comfort 5 times


Outlaw days 4 times


Childhood/the boys as children 3 times


Suspense/action/thriller 3 times


Poignant/uplifting 3 times


Mystery 2 times


Supernatural 1 time



  
So, in conclusion, it looks like in order to win on here you have the best chance of winning if you are an experienced writer who submits a lighthearted, original story which doesn't come in more than one part.  In which case you should win about one out of every 6 times; unless you hit lucky with a cracking story; which I think shows a robust fairness in our voting system.  Nobody hits lucky almost every time they post on here, so I am proud to say, "the system works".  


I can't attach the spreadsheet, but if anyone wants it emailed to them, just PM me an email address

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